BULGARIAN ECONOMIC TOP NEWS DIGEST
WEEKLY REPORT ( 8 – 22 AUGUST 2008 )
Sections/headline briefs:
MACROECONOMY:
· Bulgaria second in export increase in the EU
· Japan 's export to Bulgaria increases by 213%
· Bulgaria 's export to Arab countries hits a record
· Foreign trade of agricultural products rise 11.2% for 2006
· Inflation outpaces income
· Bulgarian salary - lowest in the EU
· Burgas to develop industrial zone
· Automobile sales up by 20% in 2008
·
·
- Price of Nabucco goes up by 80%
· Bulgaria & China to strengthen military cooperation
· Real Estate agencies go bankrupt
· EIU: Bulgarian GDP growth to slow down to 5.9 % by 2010
· Mining industry seeks help from Europe
·
·
· Bunge to export 15-20,000 Tonnes of vegetable oil to Bulgaria
· Telecommunications make up 6% of Bulgaria's GDP
· Sofia Airport handles 300,000 passengers in July
· Kozloduy nuke makes record in power generation
INVESTMENTS:
· Central and Eastern European investment activity slows down in H1
·
· Foreign Investments in Bulgaria stand at � 25 B for 12 years
· Foreign buyers eye
· Danish firm to invest in wind turbines near Rousse
· Bulgarian Tesy to build retail centre in Shumen
· New-age refinery to be built near Shoumen
· Dekotex to invest � 35 M in Sliven
· Greek Company Invests BGN 4 M in new cosmetics factory in Ruse
· Oman Investment Fund to build in Bulgaria
· Peshtera municipality to build sports auditorium
· IFC invests � 15 M in farmland fund Advance Terrafund
· Zarneni Hrani invests � 20M in installation
COMPANIES:
· Japan 's Brother Industries Bulgarian unit sees sales rising by 30% yearly until 2012
· Bulgarian Unit of Japan 's Yazaki Denies Plans To Build Second Plant in Bulgaria
· Ecobulpack to launch new recycling facility in Sofia
· Lukoil reduces fuel prices
· Electric company to increase prices in 2009
· U.S. Direct Petroleum Exploration posts positive initial resluts in Bulgarian gas well
· 57 Rouse Companies to Have Business Licenses Revoked
· Record high output in Maritza Iztok mines
ANALYSIS:
· Oxford Business Group report 'Bulgaria 2008'
Articles:
MACROECONOMY:
Bulgaria second in export increase in the EU
The trade balance of the Euro zone towards the rest of the world for June 2008 is 100 million Euro deficit according to information of the statistics agency in Eurostat. In May the deficit was 3.9 billion Euro. In June export has increased by 1.4%, while import - by 2.9% compared to the previous month.For the period January-May 2008
Japan 's export to Bulgaria increases by 213%
Bulgaria 's export to Arab countries hits a record
Bulgaria 's export to Arab countries for the first six months of 2008 marks a record growth. Information provided by the National Statistical Institute based on statistical data for January-June 2008 shows that exports to Saudi Arabia increased 20 times and to the United Arab Emirates , 10 times. Bulgaria 's export to India has grown nearly 3 times, to Vietnam - over 3 times, to Georgia - over 2 times. The foreign trade deficit for the analysed period reached 4,193 billion euro. Bulgaria 's exports (FOB prices) totalled 759 billion euros and the imports - 11,752 billion euros. According to statistics, exports increased by 35%, imports - by 39,9%.
Foreign trade of agricultural products rise 11.2% for 2006
Foreign trade of agricultural products rose 11.2 per cent year-on-year to 310 million Bulgarian leva for 2006. The tendency of increasing the agricultural products trade is preserved, said an annual report on the status and development of agriculture (Agriculture Report 2007) to be discussed on Thursday at the regular meeting of the Council of Ministers.At current prices, the 2006 gross produce of the agricultural sector was 7,107.9 million leva. The relative share of plant-growing is 50.5 per cent, of animal-breeding 31.4 per cent and of the agricultural services and other non-agricultural inseparable activities 18.1 per cent. The gross value added (GVA) generated by the agriculture and forestry sector was 3,415 million leva or 8.6 per cent of the total GVA of the country's economy. However, the sector registered a year-on-year drop of 1.9 per cent of the GVA's physical volume.The report covers the status of the subsectors of fishery, viticulture, wine-producing and of the forestry sector. Information about the activities performed in the field of plant protection, veterinary activities, selection and reproduction, research and advisory activities in agriculture was presented.The document provides also information on the financial support of farmers.The priorities and the objectives of the agricultural sector and the activities for their achievement in 2008 represent an inseparable part of the annual report. Funds required for their achievement are pointed out as well.
Inflation outpaces income
According to statisticians in June the income of the average Bulgarian household is 689.36 levs. The average for a person in the household is 277,85 levs. In June 2007, however, things were much worse. The average Bulgarian household received 614.09 and the average for a person in the household was 243 levs.Consequently, the income of Bulgarian households has increased by 12.2% for a year. We remind you that according to the latest data inflation in
Bulgarian salary - lowest in the EU
It turns out that the income of Bulgarian citizens is not only the lowest in the EU, but is lower than those of citizens of countries outside the Union, like
Burgas to develop industrial zone
The
Automobile sales up by 20% in 2008
According to data by the Association of automobile producers and their authorized dealers, over 35000 new automobiles have been sold in the first seven months of 2008. The new automobiles that have been sold in the internal Bulgarian marker for the period January-July 2008 are 32 844, new motor cycles - 488, new autobuses and trucks - 2651.For the same period in 2007 the total umber of new motor vehicles sold is 29 381, therefore on a yearly basis sales in
At least 1.6 mln of
KRZ Port Burgas, which operates a port facility in Burgas, on the
Price of Nabucco goes up by 80%
The expenses on Nabucco pipeline project will exceed the anticipated sum by more than 80%. The investments will reach 7.9 billion euro; by now figures between 4.2 and 4.5 billion euro were mentioned. The pipeline has a capacity of 31 billion cubic meters. It is expected that the Caspian gas will pass via
Bulgaria & China to strengthen military cooperation
Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie pledged here on Monday the Chinese armed forces would strengthen cooperation with the Bulgarian military to raise ties.Liang, also a state councilor, made the remarks in a meeting with his Bulgarian counterpart Nikolay Tsonev.He called on the Chinese and Bulgarian armed forces to make joint efforts in contributions to safeguarding world peace and stability.He added the China-Bulgaria military-to-military friendly ties have been continuously deepened in recent years, with frequent high level visits and extensive cooperation in various areas. He said the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) would continue to promote such cooperation.Liang hailed the good relation between the two countries, citing traditional friendship, enhanced mutual political trust and fruitful cooperation in economy, trade and other fields.Tsonev said
Real Estate agencies go bankrupt
Thousands of
EIU: Bulgarian GDP growth to slow down to 5.9 % by 2010
The Bulgarian economy remains dependant on the west-European markets and on the global economic slowdown, shows a recent report of Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The Bulgarian GDP growth will ease to 5.9 pct through 2010 and to 3.0 pct in 2010-2030, the report said. The slowdown will start in 2008 when the GDP growth will fall to 6.1 pct. Bulgaria`s economic growth is helped by surging domestic consumption which boosts the import of goods and services. However, private sector consumption shrunk to 5.1 pct in 2007 from 8.5 pct in 2006. Despite the active lending and the rising employment, EIU has projected a humble 5.0 pct rise in private consumption in 2008. In the next years this growth will shrink to 2.0 pct. The global credit crunch, which will sooner or later put an end to Bulgaria`s lending expansion, as well as Bulgarian demographic crisis will have a negative effect on the country's economic growth, EIU said.
Mining industry seeks help from Europe
Even before appearing in the state gazette Darzhaven Vestnik, more than 100 companies, members of Bulgarian Mining Chamber (BMC) with president Lachezar Tsotsorkov, declared that changes are needed in the new mining sector. According to the branch, it is written mainly by office workers in the Ministry of Environment and Water and solves none of the already existing problems, on the contrary: it creates new for the investors.
That is the reason for BMC to ask an expert examination of the law to be made by EUROMIN - the European organization of mine industry. Our expectations are our arguments to be taken into consideration and evaluated and the opinion or the European institutions to help the changes in the decisions in the law that hinder business, Tsotsorkov said. Without explanation the Parliament's Commission on Environment rejected the proposal of the mining sector for an integrated centre for issuing licenses for prospecting and extraction. At present, three ministries administrate mining activities: the Ministry of economy and energy, the Ministry of regional development and public works and the Ministry of environment and water. This only dilutes the responsibility among them. Another issue still not clarified is lack of terms in mining and processing. We insist for greater transparency, as natural resources are national wealth, Tsotsorkov commented.
The bilateral trade between
Bunge to export 15-20,000 Tonnes of vegetable oil to Bulgaria
Bunge
Telecommunications make up 6% of Bulgaria's GDP
Sofia Airport handles 300,000 passengers in July
Kozloduy nuke makes record in power generation
Kozloduy NPP set another electricity generation record.The planned 10.2 million MW that had to be produced for nine months were produced by August 20, 41 days earlier. By the end of September the NPP will produce 11.2 million MW more.This achievement resulted from shortening the repair works of the fifth unit that started functioning in advance.The sixth unit that will be stopped for its annual repair worked at 82% of its capacity.
INVESTMENTS:
Central and Eastern European investment activity slows down in H1
Central and Eastern European (CEE) investment activity in the first half of 2008 (H1 2008) decreased to 5.9 bln euro, a 14% decline from the same period in 2007 and 24% down from H2 2007 results, real estate services provider CB Richard Ellis said in an investment market report. Closing transactions now takes longer and has become more difficult. one of the reasons for this is that banks have become more restrictive in their lending policies. The number of purchasers is declining as listed property companies feel the impact of declining share values, said the report. Compared to the overall European slowdown in investment activity, market activity in CEE remained relatively high in H1 2008. Compared to the same period last year, European investment turnover fell 49% in H1 2008 to a level of 63.4 bln euro. CEE real estate investment activity now accounts for 9.3% of total pan-European investment activity. This is significantly higher than 2007 levels (6.0%), said the report. The Bulgarian real estate investment market had a strong first half of 2008, with 20 deals recorded worth 745 mln euro – almost 85% of Bulgaria’s total investment volume in 2007 and 29% growth compared to H1 2007, said the report. Unlike in most other CEE markets,
The foreign direct investments in
Foreign Investments in Bulgaria stand at � 25 B for 12 years
The foreign investments in
Foreign buyers eye
Foreign investors are shifting their interest from holiday apartments and country houses to
Danish firm to invest in wind turbines near Rousse
Vestas Windsystems A/S, a leading Danish company specialising in the production of wind turbines, has announced plans to invest in Rousse, investor.bg reported.Currently, the company is analysing possibilities for bringing their environmentally-friendly concept of electricity production to
Bulgarian Tesy to build retail centre in Shumen
Bulgarian household heating appliances maker Tesy plans to build a modern retail centre in the northeastern town of
New-age refinery to be built near Shoumen
Mega Group, a joint-stock company, has announced plans to invest 100 million euro towards constructing an oil refinery in the town of
Dekotex to invest � 35 M in Sliven
The mayor of
Greek Company Invests BGN 4 M in new cosmetics factory in
The Greek firm Septoma is going to invest BGN 4 M into the construction of a new cosmetics factory in the free economic zone of Bulgaria's Danube city of
Oman Investment Fund to build in Bulgaria
Peshtera municipality to build sports auditorium
The
IFC invests � 15 M in farmland fund Advance Terrafund
The International Financial Corporation (IFC) has invested EUR 15mn in the local agricultural fund Advance Terrafund. The Fund is operating a 150% (EUR 33.7mn) capital hike to EUR 56.2mn at present and IFC will subscribe 25% of the new shares. Advance Terrafund expects to raise EUR 63.9mn from the local stock exchange to finance a twofold increase of the land portfolio of the fund by end-2009 and to cover a EUR 15mn bridge loan provided by the National Bank of
Zarneni Hrani invests � 20M in installation
Zarneni Hrani invests EUR 20 million in new installation for production of biodiesel. The capacity is 100,000 tons a year and that will meet 60% of biodiesel consumption in the country. Bulgaria produces agricultural crops several times more than the country needs and the alternatives are two: either to export them unprocessed or to process them in the country, which serves Bulgaria 's interests.
COMPANIES:
Japan 's Brother Industries Bulgarian unit sees sales rising by 30% yearly until 2012
The Bulgarian unit of Japanese printing solutions provider Brother Industries Ltd plans to raise its sales by one-third each year until 2012 and raise its market share as part of the global strategy of its parent, a company official said. Brother's Global Vision 21 strategy targets a doubling of the company's current global annual turnover to $10 billion (6.8 billion euro) in 2012. Southeast European markets are expected to grow faster than saturated Western markets in the medium to long term. Brother
AN EUROPEAN PLAYER
Brother, a typical Japanese industrial fairy tale that has started repairing sewing machines 100 years ago and now develops high-tech products like wireless multimedia glasses, was the market leader in the multifunctional devices in
DOMESTIC MARKET
Brother
Bulgarian Unit of Japan 's Yazaki Denies Plans To Build Second Plant in Bulgaria
The Bulgarian unit of Japanese automotive components manufacturer Yazaki Corporation on Wednesday denied a statement by the mayor of the Bulgarian town of
Ecobulpack to launch new recycling facility in Sofia
Ecobulpack, one of
"Lukoil" reduces fuel prices
At 8 o'clock on August 18 2008 "Lukoil" changed the end prices of almost all fuels, according to information from the website of the company. The price of diesel is changed and is now 2202 levs/1000 liters, as the reduction is 4.23%.Gas has also decreased its level and is now traded at 2149.20/1000 liters or the reduction is 4.28%.There is no change in the price of the heavily used gasoline A-95 which is traded at 2092.80/1000 liters and A-98 - traded at 2202/1000 liters.At gas stations the commonly used A-95 is traded at around 2.26 levs per liter.The price of propane gas also kept its current price and is still traded at 2046 levs per ton.
Electric company to increase prices in 2009
The electric company "CEZ" has issued 2 million invoices in the last 3 months as only 7 thousand reclamations have been made from the company's start in
U.S. Direct Petroleum Exploration posts positive initial resluts in Bulgarian gas well
U.S.-based Direct Petroleum Exploration Inc. (DPE) late on Monday reported positive results in the initial phase of the completion of its Deventci R1 gas discovery in northern
57 Rouse Companies to Have Business Licenses Revoked
The tax inspectors from the Bulgarian Danube port and city of Rouse have requested cancellations of the business licenses of 57 companies from the city whose business is related to taxi cab and freight transportation.The reasons stated is the fact that they have failed to make timely payments of insurance and tax in the amount of over BGN 5,000.
The authorities in charge of issuing licenses and permits have been notified about all 57 companies. The notices insist on revoking their rights to conduct business until they deposit the amounts owed in the State budget.
Record high output in Maritza Iztok mines
These record high figures are to a great extent due ro the fact that in the end of March the state-run company began exploiting a new deposit in the pit. According to the prospecting, the deposits amount to 200 million tons, but 25 million tons of them have been already dug out. The remaining quantity is sufficient to ensure problem-free operation of the mines for a few years ahead. As company insiders explain, the preparation of operations to utilize that coal layer has continued almost 30 years and EUR250MN-plus has been invested. The big output will satisfy the future needs of the heating stations in the Maritsa Iztok 2 and 3 complexes and in those that would be commissioned later on. The
ANALYSIS:
Oxford Business Group report 'Bulgaria 2008'
Publication: Standart daily
Accession to the EU in 2007 has been the major driver of change in Bulgaria of late, and the country is working to come on line with its new EU neighbours on the political and economic front. The country has seen consistent growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) over the past three years, and both the industrial segment and tourism look particularly strong. The banking sector also looks set to continue to enjoy good health, as the injection of EU funds into various programmes will require co-financing from banks. A tough agricultural season in the summer of 2007 led to rising prices and climbing inflation, though the government is confident that domestic measures aimed at boosting the supply side, as well as continued investment, will help cool off the economy in 2008.
THE ECONOMY
Bulgaria finished up 2007 with a growth rate of 6.2%, largely due to fixed capital investment and strong domestic demand, as well as excellent performances from the manufacturing, construction and services sectors. While industry continues to grow, contributing 31% to GDP last year and pushing up exports, the demand for raw materials and investment goods has caused the trade deficit to widen, in turn inflating the current account deficit. However, industry experts predict manufacturing companies will remain competitive and Bulgaria is already growing its share of European markets. Growth for 2008 is forecast at 6%, thanks to continued inflow of EU funding. Such grants and loans will have a major impact on a variety of sectors, from construction to tourism to education. The government has remained committed to a tight fiscal policy and successfully maintained a budget surplus for the past few years, achieving 3.8% of GDP in 2007. Economists are predicting the surplus will remain stable for the next three years, though there is some concern that politicians will be tempted to use the surplus for activities related to the 2009 elections. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown for the third year in a row, and reached a record high of 4.4bn euros in 2006. There is some imbalance in these inflows, however, with 60% of FDI going to real estate, tourism and commerce, and only 30% to production. The drought in summer 2007 was a tough time for Bulgaria , causing food prices to soar and driving year-on-year inflation up to 12.5% in December. Inflation is expected to stay up in 2008 with higher energy prices and excise taxes, though the state hopes that building up capacity to bolster the supply side, as well as high investment rates, can lend a hand in cooling the economy.
This chapter includes interviews with Andr? Bergen, CEO, KBC Group; Anand Seth, Director for Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania, World Bank; and Milen Ivanov, Managing Partner, Jordan Sheppard; while Plamen Oresharski, Minister of Finance, provides a viewpoint.
BANKING
Credit growth was the major story in 2007, with banks continuing to lend and EU accession bringing renewed interest from foreign investors. The banking sector is nearly saturated, with an assets-to-GDP ratio of almost 100%. However, growing incomes and increasing numbers of small- and medium-sized businesses should continue to provide opportunities. With EU membership bringing a vast amount of funding, banks should have plenty of chances to co-finance development projects and new products are already being introduced for such programmes. Increased competition in the sector may bring a round of mergers and acquisitions. The country's 29 banks have seen total assets more than double in the past three years, with this progress due largely to reforms and the push to privatise enacted after the financial crisis of 1996. A currency board pegging the lev to the euro was also instituted at that time and is still in place.The participation of foreign groups has brought a healthy dose of competition and boosted confidence in the banking sector. As a result, Bulgaria 's banks have shown resilience to the recent upheaval in global financial markets. To the future, credit growth is predicted to continue in the next few years, though this will provide a challenge to the central bank as it takes efforts to keep spending in check.
CAPITAL MARKETS
Despite being relatively young, Bulgaria 's capital markets have underlying strengths which have been attracting significant attention from investors, and the Bulgarian Stock Exchange (BSE) has shown positive growth every year since 2001. An initial drop in the first two months of 2007 was chalked up to a natural correction, and the exchange achieved 44% growth for the year. The BSE is divided into two sections, termed the official and unofficial markets, based on the size and liquidity of the companies listed. Bulgaria 's accession to the EU has helped put the bourse into international investors' frame of reference, and economic reforms have put the country closer in line with European standards. In 2008, for example, the BSE intends to upgrade its trading platform, using the Deutsche Borse's technology, which will enable a greater volume of international trade. Bulgaria 's capital markets currently consist of stocks and bonds, with the bond market quite small, though some analysts are predicting this may shift if the equities market does not pick up soon. Futures and short-selling will probably not be introduced for another two to three years. There is a strong indication that mutual funds, as well as pensions, are becoming more popular. Despite the slight downturn due to the November 2007 correction, observers are generally optimistic that by the second half of 2008, many investors will return to Bulgaria .
This chapter includes interviews with Bistra Ilkova, Executive Director, Bulgarian Stock Exchange, and Krassimir Tahchiev, Head of Research, First Financial Brokerage House. First Financial Brokerage House provides share analysis of the following companies: Eurohold Bulgaria, First Investment Bank, Holding Roads, Kaolin, and Lead and Zinc Complex.
INSURANCE
The Bulgarian insurance market has been showing steady growth in recent years, with 37 companies operating in the country as of February 2008. Motor vehicle insurance dominates the non-life segment, though areas such as property, industry and marine insurance have all registered gains. The life insurance sector is also making a comeback after challenges due to massive inflation in the late 1990s, and should continue to show growth as Bulgarians increase in wealth. The market is dominated by large international insurers, which have introduced a healthy dose of competition and led to new products, yet there are some concerns that they are beginning to push out local players. In response, some local insurance groups have started to look to expanding their share in neighbouring markets such as Macedonia and Romania .Rapid growth is expected to continue for at least the next three to four years, and EU accession should lead to some restructuring of the industry, though a new insurance code should minimise the number of dramatic regulatory changes to the sector.
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